Download e-book for iPad: The Management of Uncertainty: Approaches, Methods and by Luc Wilkin (auth.), Luc Wilkin (eds.)

By Luc Wilkin (auth.), Luc Wilkin (eds.)

For thirty years, the literature on decision-making and making plans has been divided into camps : paintings premised on rational versions of selection and paintings designed to discredit such types. The sustained critic of absolutely rational decision-making theories has al­ prepared an extended background and a relentless message to bring : in perform, consequential decision-making not often fulfills the canons of excellent rationality. there's additionally proof that decision-making and making plans usually are not unitary tactics. even supposing the idea that of "decision-making" connotes the assumption of a unmarried technique, creating a unmarried selection comprises a fancy of processing projects : structuring the matter, discovering choices worthy contemplating, determining what details is proper, assessing quite a few outcomes, and various others. the purpose of this quantity is to collect and take a look at to inter­ relate a few of the options and appropriate wisdom from quite a few disciplines concerned about one vital point of this complicated procedure : the administration of uncertainty. it really is hardly ever essential to reiterate the case made via quite a few authors approximately our altering and more and more doubtful international. Suffice it to assert right here that it's uncertainty concerning the destiny, and in lots of situations concerning the prior and the current additionally, which makes decision-making and making plans so difficul t. The administration of uncertainty can be outlined because the means during which uncertainty is taken care of and processed in decision-making.

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4 Pairwise comparison. A special case of sensitivity can be identified when making pairwise comparisons. It can be argued that all comparisons are pairwise - that it is impossible for the human mind to compare things in any other way - and if more than two things have to be looked at (A, Band C, for example), theyare compared pairwise (A with B, B with C, and C with A). Explicit pairwise comparison is very helpful on ce a shortlist of good alternatives has been identified. This is another relatively "soft" technique, which can be useful, - especially in connection with surprise limits analysis.

In very broad terms this could be, for example, whether the balance of future investment in transportation should be directed towards public sector modes of travel or private sector modes. This example is essentially aspatial but a similar broad choice could be formulated in relation to shopping facilities where the options might be centralization on one major town centre, or dispersal among neighbourhood developments and other settlements. 2 Interrelatedness. Any two decision areas, whatever kinds of choice they relate to, are said to be interrelated if there is any reason for believing that the choice arrived at by considering the two decision areas together might be different.

This seemed to be because then they were prepared to adapt the approach freely and informally to the situations they met, whereas those who operated in a more isolated "back room" setting, would tend to become disillusioned and turn to other new techniques when the results of this work were not accepted as direct inputs to decision-making. 25 A more recent and longer term experimental programme, designed along similar lines, has explored the application of Strategic Choice to the problems of planning which arise in the preparation of Structure Plans - documents which are intended to set out coherent statements of land-use strategy for each of the English counties.

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